Cash out betting: how offers are worked out and how to tell a fair one

What cash out is

Cash out is an offer from your bookmaker to settle a bet before the event is decided. You accept the amount shown, the bet is closed, and the money goes to your balance whatever happens next. The TAB describes it as accepting "an early payment offer" on a pending bet.

The important word is offer. The bookmaker sets the number, it changes with every price movement, and it can be withdrawn. Cash out is a product the bookmaker sells you, and like every other bet type it is priced with a margin.

How bookmakers set the cash out value

Each bookmaker uses its own method, but the published descriptions point to the same inputs:

In plain terms: the offer starts from what your bet would be worth at today's prices, and then the bookmaker takes its cut. Your job is to estimate that cut.

Cash out explained with numbers

You bet $20 on a team at $3.00, so a win returns $60. Your team has been well backed and is now $1.60, with the opponent at $2.40. The app offers you $33.00 to cash out.

1. Find the fair chance. The current prices imply 62.50% and 41.67%, a total of 104.17%. Remove the margin and your team's fair chance is 60.00%.
2. Work out the fair value. $60 potential return x 60% = $36.00. That is what the bet is worth on average right now.
3. Work out the hedge. Back the opponent at $2.40 for $60 / 2.40 = $25. Whichever side wins you are left with $35.00 back (a $15.00 profit on your original $20).

In our calculation, an offer of $33.00 costs you $2.00 more than doing the hedge yourself. If the offer had been $35.00, cashing out and hedging would come to the same thing, and cash out would at least save you a second bet. Our guide to hedging bets covers the hedge formula, and the hedge bet calculator does the sums.

Cash out on a multi

On a multi the gap between the offer and fair value is harder to see, because several prices feed into it. Say you have a $10 three leg multi at combined odds of $6.00, and the first two legs have won. The last leg is $1.50, with the other side at $2.60.

That last market adds up to 105.13%, so your leg's fair chance is 63.41% and the ticket's fair value is $60 x 63.41% = $38.05. Backing the other side for $60 / 2.60 = $23.08 locks in $36.92. In our calculation, a cash out offer of $34.00 sits 10.64% below fair value and $2.92 below the hedge. On a multi, the fair value check is the only way to know what the button is really charging.

Partial cash out

The TAB lets you take an early payment for part of some pending bets, with the potential collect on the rest reduced to match. If a split were exactly proportional, taking half of a $33.00 offer would pay $16.50 now and leave half of the $60 potential collect, $30, still running. Partial cash out is the same trade-off as a partial hedge: less risk, a little less expected value on the part you settle.

Which bets you can and cannot cash out

The rules differ between bookmakers, and none of them guarantees an offer.

The TAB also says offers disappear while a market or selection is suspended, which is often exactly when something big has just happened. Our guides to the same game multi and the quaddie explain those bets in full.

Cash out during the game

Australian law bans placing new sports bets online once a game has started, with exceptions for bets made wholly by phone and bets placed in person at a licensed venue. The TAB's help page says any bet whose remaining selections were placed before the start can be cashed out through your device on markets open for live betting, and that bets placed live over the phone must be cashed out over the phone. Some markets only offer cash out before the start. What counts as in-play, and why racing is treated differently, is covered in our guide to in play betting in Australia.

Pundit tip: decide your cash out rule before the bet goes on, such as "only if the offer is within 3% of fair value". In the moment, with a team two goals up and the clock running, every offer looks generous.

When cash out makes sense

• When the certainty is worth paying for. If losing the whole return would hurt, a fair-ish offer is a reasonable trade.
• When the offer is close to the hedge. It saves a second bet and a second account.
• Not to escape a bet that is going badly. An offer below your stake locks in a loss and pays the margin on top.
• Not out of habit. Cashing out every winning position caps your wins while your losers still lose in full.

If you notice that you cash out to feel in control, or keep reopening the app during games, the gambling help page lists free, confidential support.

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