Hedge bet calculator: the stake that locks in a profit either way

How to use the hedge bet calculator

Enter the stake and decimal odds of the bet you already hold, then today's price on the opposite outcome. The calculator shows the hedge stake that makes both results pay the same, the total you will have staked and the profit you lock in. The table underneath compares three choices: leave the bet alone, hedge just enough to get your stake back, or hedge for equal profit. If the prices cannot lock in a profit, the note tells you what the hedge price would need to be.

The calculator assumes two outcomes: your bet wins, or the hedge wins. For a market with a draw or more runners, you would need to cover every other outcome, which is what our dutching calculator does.

The hedge formula

Your original bet returns R = stake x original odds if it wins. To make the other side return the same R, the hedge stake H must satisfy H x hedge odds = R:

H = original stake x original odds / hedge odds

profit either way = R - original stake - H

The cheaper "cover your stake" hedge stakes just enough to get the original stake back if the hedge wins:

H = original stake / (hedge odds - 1)

A hedge can only lock in a profit when the hedge odds are higher than original odds / (original odds - 1). With an original price of $9.00 that threshold is $1.125, so almost any hedge price works. With an original price of $1.90 the threshold is $2.11, which is why you cannot hedge a coin-flip bet at $1.90 on both sides without locking in a loss.

Worked example: hedging a tennis futures bet

Before a tournament you put $20 on a player at $9.00. They reach the final, and their opponent is $1.80 to win it. Your bet would return $180.

In our calculation the equal-profit hedge needs $100 on the opponent. Either way you get $180 back from $120 staked, a guaranteed $60. Covering your stake costs only $25 and keeps $135 of upside, but pays nothing if the opponent wins. Those are the calculator's default inputs. For more on backing outrights before an event starts, see futures betting.

How the hedge price changes the result

The longer the price on the other side, the less you need to stake and the more you lock in. Same $20 at $9.00, in our calculation:

Prices move after you bet. Hedge too early, when your selection is still a long shot, and the price on the other side is short, so the hedge eats most of the profit. The bigger the gap between your original price and the hedge price, the more there is to lock in.

Hedging the last leg of a multi

The same maths works on a multi with one leg to go. Enter the multi stake as the original stake and the total multi odds as the original odds. A $10 multi at $30.00 total with the last leg still to run returns $300. If the other side of that last leg is $1.90, the calculator shows an equal-profit hedge of $157.89, locking in $132.11 in our calculation. Covering only the $10 stake takes $11.11 and leaves $278.89 of upside. Our multi bet calculator shows how the total odds build up in the first place. Cash out is not always there as an alternative: the TAB, for example, does not offer cash out on same game multis, so a separate hedge bet is the only way to lock in a result.

What hedging costs

A hedge is a second bet at the bookmaker's price, and that price includes a margin. Betfair's guide to overrounds says some large bookmakers ran at "somewhere between 115% and 120%" on 2021 Australian Group 1 thoroughbred races. If the margin on your hedge price is 5% and spread evenly, each dollar staked is worth about 95 cents on average, so a $100 hedge costs about $4.76 in expected value, in our calculation. You are paying that to remove the risk. That trade is often worth it for a big futures return, but it is not free money, and it is why the hedging bets guide treats a hedge as insurance rather than a strategy.

Pundit tip: if you already know you will hedge whatever happens, compare the locked profit with the cash out offer on the same bet. The higher of the two is the better deal.

Rules to know before you hedge

You cannot hedge a sports bet online once the match has started: ACMA says in-play betting on sports matches online is prohibited, with a phone exception only when the whole bet is made "wholly via the phone call". Plan the hedge before the start. Exchange users can hedge by laying their selection instead; our lay bet calculator shows the liability and commission for that route.

Related reading

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