Card counting blackjack: the Hi-Lo count and its real value

Key facts

The Hi-Lo count adds 1 for every 2 to 6 you see, subtracts 1 for every ten-value card or ace, and ignores 7, 8 and 9. Divide by the decks left to get the true count.
On Australian rules with 6 decks, each point of true count shifts the edge by about 0.5% in our model: the house leads by 0.44% at a true count of 0, and you lead by about 0.54% at +2.
Good counts are rare. With 75% of a 6 deck shoe dealt, 14.6% of rounds start at +2 or better in our simulation; with half the shoe dealt, only 8.5%.
Betting 1 to 8 units on the count with 75% of the shoe dealt gave about +0.19% of money bet in our model, and after 10,000 rounds you would still be behind about 45% of the time.
Australian rule books let casinos restrict a player's betting: Crown Melbourne's approved rules allow limiting a player to one box at the table minimum, and NSW casinos can withdraw a patron's licence to enter without giving reasons.

What card counting actually does

Card counting in blackjack is a way of tracking whether the cards left in the shoe are rich in tens and aces, which help you, or in small cards, which help the dealer. It works because blackjack, unlike roulette, is dealt from a shoe without replacement: every card that comes out changes the mix of what is left.

A shoe heavy in tens and aces is good for you for three reasons: you get more blackjacks paid at 3 to 2, your doubles on 10 and 11 land more often, and the dealer, who must hit 12 to 16, busts more. A counter bets more when the count is high and less when it is low. Nothing about the count changes the house edge on a fresh shoe; it only tells you when that edge has moved.

How to count cards with Hi-Lo

The Hi-Lo count is the most widely taught system because it uses only three values.

Cards	Hi-Lo value	Why
2, 3, 4, 5, 6	+1	Small cards gone means the rest of the shoe is richer in tens
7, 8, 9	0	Roughly neutral
10, J, Q, K, A	minus 1	The cards you want are leaving the shoe

Each deck has twenty +1 cards and twenty minus 1 cards, so a complete count of any shoe ends at zero. That balance is what makes the next step work.

Running count: start at 0 after the shuffle and add every card you see, yours, other players' and the dealer's.

True count: divide the running count by the number of decks still to be dealt. A +6 running count means far more with 1 deck left than with 5.

Worked example. A 6 deck shoe. After 2 decks have been dealt your running count is +8. Four decks remain, so the true count is +8 / 4 = +2. In our model of Australian rules, that shoe gives the player an edge of about 0.54% on the next hand, against the house's 0.44% at a true count of zero.

What each true count is worth

We modelled a 6 deck shoe with 3 decks left, using Queensland and Victorian casino rules (double on 9, 10 or 11 only, dealer stands on soft 17, no hole card, one split), and played every hand the best way for that shoe's mix of cards:

True count	Player's edge (minus = house leads)
minus 2	minus 1.44%
minus 1	minus 0.94%
0	minus 0.44%
+1	+0.05%
+2	+0.54%
+3	+1.02%
+4	+1.49%
+5	+1.96%
+6	+2.47%

Each point of true count moves the edge by about half a percent, and the break-even point is a true count of roughly +1. Even at +6, which is rare, the advantage is under 2.5%.

Insurance follows the count more directly than anything else. With an ace showing, the chance that a ten is underneath is 30.97% at a neutral count in our model, and rises to 33.29% at +3, where the 2 to 1 insurance payout roughly breaks even. That is the one time insurance is not a losing bet.

How often good counts come up

The deeper the dealer deals before shuffling, the more often the true count wanders far from zero. Australian rule books control this. Crown Melbourne's approved blackjack rules place the cutting card no more than about halfway into the stack and no less than about one and a half decks from the back. On a 6 deck shoe that means between roughly 50% and 75% of the cards are dealt before the shuffle. The ACT's approved pontoon rules use a similar range, from one deck to about half the decks from the back.

We simulated 20,000 shoes of 6 decks, starting a round every 10 cards:

Share of rounds starting at	50% of the shoe dealt	75% of the shoe dealt
True count +1 or more	20.5%	26.6%
True count +2 or more	8.5%	14.6%
True count +3 or more	3.1%	7.9%

Most rounds are played at a neutral or negative count, where you are at a disadvantage. The money is made, if at all, on the minority of hands at high counts, and only if you bet much more on them.

What a counting plan really earns

Using those simulated counts, we bet 1 unit below +1, 2 units at +1, 4 at +2, 6 at +3 and 8 at +4 or more:

Penetration	Average bet	Result per round	Share of money bet
75% of the shoe dealt	1.80 units	+0.0034 units	about +0.19%
50% of the shoe dealt	1.46 units	minus 0.0028 units	about minus 0.19%

At $10 a unit with deep penetration, that is roughly 3.4 cents of expected profit a round. The swings dwarf it. Using our calculated spread of results for a blackjack hand, after 1,000 rounds the counter in our model is behind about 48% of the time, after 10,000 rounds about 45%, and even after 100,000 rounds about 35%. That is before mistakes, fatigue or a table that shuffles early.

Pundit tip: counting does not turn blackjack into income. The realistic benefit for most players is knowing why a deep shoe matters, and why insurance at a neutral count is a bad bet.

What Australian casinos are allowed to do

The approved rules spell out the casino's options, and they are written with advantage players in mind:

Limit your bets. Crown Melbourne's rules let a Casino Manager limit a player to one betting area at the table minimum; a VGCCC inspector must be notified first. The ACT's pontoon rules allow the same limit and say a player who was tracked and restricted before can be restricted again without being tracked again.
Stop table hopping. Crown's rules allow a player who has not bet on every round since the start of the shoe to be held to the table minimum until the next shuffle.
Shuffle continuously. Crown's rules provide for continuous shuffling machines, and say no cutting card is used with one. When the cards are shuffled continuously there is no depleted shoe to count.
Refuse entry. The NSW Independent Casino Commission says casinos can issue a withdrawal of licence to enter, for a set term or indefinitely, without giving reasons, and the Commission cannot review it.

Devices are a different matter from your memory. The VGCCC has approved rule changes setting out what the casino must do about people using prohibited devices while gambling, so never use an app or gadget at the table.

Card counting online and live

A count only means something if the shoe is dealt down before a reshuffle. If a game shuffles after every round, as continuous shufflers effectively do, each hand starts from a fresh shoe and the count is always zero. Live dealer formats vary, and Infinite style games deal one common hand to every player. Either way, online blackjack cannot legally be offered to people in Australia, and ACMA blocks the offshore sites that do it; see our live blackjack guide.

Counting also assumes you already play perfect basic strategy, since a strategy error can cost more than the count gains. Learn the chart in our blackjack strategy guide first, and the probabilities in blackjack odds. For the wider picture of Australian blackjack rules, start with online blackjack Australia. If you find yourself chasing an edge to win back losses, gambling help is free and confidential.

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Frequently asked questions

Is card counting illegal in Australia?

Counting cards in your head is not cheating with a device, but casinos can respond. Approved casino rules let them restrict a player to the table minimum on one box, NSW casinos can withdraw a patron's licence to enter without giving reasons, and the Victorian rules deal separately with people using prohibited devices.

How do you count cards with Hi-Lo?

Start at 0 after a shuffle. Add 1 for each 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6 you see, subtract 1 for each 10, jack, queen, king or ace, and ignore 7, 8 and 9. Divide that running count by the number of decks still to be dealt to get the true count.

How much does card counting win?

Very little. In our model of 6 deck Australian rules with 75% of the shoe dealt, betting 1 to 8 units on the count returned about 0.19% of the money bet. With half the shoe dealt the same plan lost about 0.19%.

Can you count cards in online or live blackjack?

Only if the cards are dealt from a shoe that is not reshuffled after every round. If a game reshuffles every hand or uses a continuous shuffling machine, the count resets each round and is worthless. Online blackjack also cannot legally be offered to people in Australia.

When should a card counter take insurance?

In our model insurance breaks even at a true count of about +3: the chance of a ten under the dealer's ace reaches 33.3%. Below that it loses, and at a neutral count it loses about 7.1% of the insurance bet.